Scenario iconScenario Analysis Series are published quarterly by Dcode EFC, to assist Clients in anticipating the different paths the Egyptian economy may take as a result of foreseen shocks. Done through economic modeling, such a tool allow organizations to take early decisions that corresponds to the different alternatives the economy will take in the future due to particular economic/political events. Reports include also the different scenario analysis to possible government policy response options which can be adopted instantly as well as over the medium term.

Current developments in the Egypt, and the fast pace of the political, economical, and social change requires different set of tools in order to accommodate for the various effects these changes might have over business operating in the market or wish to enter it. An analysis using various economic scenarios is necessary to get a good insight on risk and opportunities. Dcode EFC’s economic model simulation takes into account a multitude of different variables, such as exchange rates, taxes, inflation, etc. The Scenario analysis is built closely with Clients and tailored according to their needs, aiming to:

  • Provide a coherent analysis of what would happen if key macroeconomic variables changed or the economy faces standard macroeconomic shocks.
  • The standard analysis includes assessing the risk/impact of currency devaluation, higher interest rates, higher international prices, and lower real growth rate.

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Scenario Analysis 


No GCC deposits renewal, Stronger tourism & FDI rebound, and Stagnant Tourism Revenues
March 2017
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Egypt Economy Expedited Devaluation, IMF Loan, and Stagnant Tourism Receipts
June 2016
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario8 Long-lasting Tourism Shock, Expedited Devaluation, and Passing of the VAT
December 2015
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
scenario7 Iran and the West, Flexible Exchange Rate Policy Security, and the Parliament
August 2015
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Senario6 Pace of Economic Reform, Regional Security, and the EEDC
March 2015
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario5 Escalated Attacks, Economic Summit, & Repayment of Arrears
November 2014
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy, as a result of escalated attacks, better than expected outcome from the economic summit, and the repayment of arrears to international oil companies.
Scenario Analysis
Tourism, gulf inflows, and external shocks Tourism, Gulf Inflows, and External Shocks
April 2014
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in Tourism, Gulf Inflows, and External Shocks, and their impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario AnalysisInflation, Tourism, and Gulf Inflows
October 2013
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in Inflation, Tourism, and Gulf Inflows and their impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Taxation, Interest Rates, FXCorporate Income Tax, Interest Rates, and Foreign Exchange Rates
June 2013
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in taxes, interest rates, and foreign exchange and their impacts on the economy.
Taxation, Interest Rates, FX
Devaluation of the Egyptian Pound
January 2013
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts the economic impacts to the EGP depreciation.