Scenario Analysis Series are published quarterly by Dcode EFC, to assist Clients in anticipating the different paths the Egyptian economy may take as a result of foreseen shocks. Done through economic modeling, such a tool allow organizations to take early decisions that corresponds to the different alternatives the economy will take in the future due to particular economic/political events. Reports include also the different scenario analysis to possible government policy response options which can be adopted instantly as well as over the medium term.

Current developments in the Egypt, and the fast pace of the political, economical, and social change requires different set of tools in order to accommodate for the various effects these changes might have over business operating in the market or wish to enter it. An analysis using various economic scenarios is necessary to get a good insight on risk and opportunities. Dcode EFC’s economic model simulation takes into account a multitude of different variables, such as exchange rates, taxes, inflation, etc. The Scenario analysis is built closely with Clients and tailored according to their needs, aiming to:

• Provide a coherent analysis of what would happen if key macroeconomic variables changed or the economy faces standard macroeconomic shocks.
• The standard analysis includes assessing the risk/impact of currency devaluation, higher interest rates, higher international prices, and lower real growth rate.

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Scenario Analysis 

	Lower Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows, More Flexible Exchange Rate, Higher International Oil Prices August 2018 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	Full energy price liberalization (excluding LPG), Lower growth path for tourism receipts and portfolio investments (CBE maintains free-float), Lower growth path for tourism receipts and Portfolio Investments (CBE partially intervenes) February 2018 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	A stronger-than-expected rebound in tourism revenues and foreign direct investments (FDIs), Adopting an exchange-rate-targeting policy by the CBE, A fully-floating exchange rate with no intervention at all by the CBE August 2017 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	No GCC deposits renewal, Stronger tourism & FDI rebound, and Stagnant Tourism Revenues March 2017 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	Expedited Devaluation, IMF Loan, and Stagnant Tourism Receipts June 2016 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	Long-lasting Tourism Shock, Expedited Devaluation, and Passing of the VAT December 2015 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	Iran and the West, Flexible Exchange Rate Policy Security, and the Parliament August 2015 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	Pace of Economic Reform, Regional Security, and the EEDC March 2015 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
	Escalated Attacks, Economic Summit, & Repayment of Arrears November 2014 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy, as a result of escalated attacks, better than expected outcome from the economic summit, and the repayment of arrears to international oil companies.
	Tourism, Gulf Inflows, and External Shocks April 2014 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in Tourism, Gulf Inflows, and External Shocks, and their impacts on the economy.
	Inflation, Tourism, and Gulf Inflows October 2013 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in Inflation, Tourism, and Gulf Inflows and their impacts on the economy.
	Corporate Income Tax, Interest Rates, and Foreign Exchange Rates June 2013 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in taxes, interest rates, and foreign exchange and their impacts on the economy.
	Devaluation of the Egyptian Pound January 2013 Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts the economic impacts to the EGP depreciation.