Scenario5Escalated Attacks, Economic Summit, and Repayment of Arrears

Scenario Analysis Series

Published: November 2014

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Summary

The profound and rapid developments that is taking place in Egypt since 2011 and the uncertainty of the new political and economic landscape poses significant risks for businesses, organizations and individuals. These risks triggered the need for deep and accurate understanding of how the Egyptian economy with its many variables will perform in the future subject to different, but plausible, scenarios. Dcode EFC’s “Economic Scenarios Analysis” is our attempt to address this need given our understanding that our partners need to be prepared for the different economic scenarios that could take place in Egypt.
 

In this issue we compare our updated central forecasts based on baseline (most likely) assumptions to different economic scenarios that could materialize. The report aims at helping or clients and partners prepare for the implications associated to the potential materialization of selected positive and negative risks. The three scenarios we chose to explore in this report are as follows:

  1. Escalated terrorist attacks that significantly hit the tourism sector (second tourism shock)
  2. Better than expected outcomes from the economic summit planned in March 2015 and swifter response by investors
  3. Accelerated repayment of arrears due on EGPC to international oil companies

Because these three scenarios are not incorporated into our baseline assumptions and associated forecasts, we deemed it important to highlight their potential implications if materialized especially that their likelihood is positive (not most likely but probable).


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