Escalated Attacks, Economic Summit, and Repayment of Arrears
Scenario Analysis Series
Published: November 2014
- 10 Pages
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In this issue we compare our updated central forecasts based on baseline (most likely) assumptions to different economic scenarios that could materialize. The report aims at helping or clients and partners prepare for the implications associated to the potential materialization of selected positive and negative risks. The three scenarios we chose to explore in this report are as follows:
- Escalated terrorist attacks that significantly hit the tourism sector (second tourism shock)
- Better than expected outcomes from the economic summit planned in March 2015 and swifter response by investors
- Accelerated repayment of arrears due on EGPC to international oil companies
Because these three scenarios are not incorporated into our baseline assumptions and associated forecasts, we deemed it important to highlight their potential implications if materialized especially that their likelihood is positive (not most likely but probable).
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