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Monthly Analytical Report (Decoding the Egyptian Economy)


Egypt EconomyDecoding the Egyptian Economy
August 2017
Monthly economic report on macroeconomic and financial indicators with brief analysis and outlook for the month of August 2017.
Egypt EconomyDecoding the Egyptian Economy
July 2017
Monthly economic report on macroeconomic and financial indicators with brief analysis and outlook for the month of July 2017.
Egypt EconomyDecoding the Egyptian Economy
June 2017
Monthly economic report on macroeconomic and financial indicators with brief analysis and outlook for the month of June 2017.
Egypt EconomyDecoding the Egyptian Economy
May 2017
Monthly economic report on macroeconomic and financial indicators with brief analysis and outlook for the month of May 2017.
Egypt EconomyDecoding the Egyptian Economy
April 2017
Monthly economic report on macroeconomic and financial indicators with brief analysis and outlook for the month of April 2017.
Egypt EconomyDecoding the Egyptian Economy
March 2017
Monthly economic report on macroeconomic and financial indicators with brief analysis and outlook for the month of March 2017.

Economic Forecasting


Egypt’s Economic Outlook
August 2017
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Egypt’s Economic Outlook
February 2017
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Egypt Economic OutlookEgypt’s Economic Outlook
March 2016
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Outlooknov2015Egypt’s Economic Outlook
November 2015
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Outlook coverEgypt’s Economic Outlook
July 2015
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Egypt OutlookEgypt’s Economic Prospects: In light of the Economic Development Conference (EEDC)
March 2015
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
December 2014 OutlookEgypt’s Looming Economic Recovery: Will the reform momentum prevail?
December 2014
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Egypt OutlookEgypt’s Leap of Faith:Will the bold reforms pay off?

July 2014
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Egypt OutlookEgypt’s Economic Outlook: Egypt’s Muddling Through Transition:
Mixed forces in action

February 2014
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term.
Economic Outlook
Economic OutlookEgypt’s Economic Outlook: Back into a Transition Loaded with an Exhausted Economy
September 2013
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term. Issued on a quarterly basis
Economic Outlook
Economic ForecastEgypt’s Economic Outlook: Will Politics Open the Door to an Economic Healing?
March 2013
Coherent forecast of Egypt key macroeconomic variables in the short- and medium-term. Issued on a quarterly basis
Economic Forecast

Scenario Analysis 


No GCC deposits renewal, Stronger tourism & FDI rebound, and Stagnant Tourism Revenues
March 2017
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Egypt Economy Expedited Devaluation, IMF Loan, and Stagnant Tourism Receipts
June 2016
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario8 Long-lasting Tourism Shock, Expedited Devaluation, and Passing of the VAT
December 2015
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
scenario7 Iran and the West, Flexible Exchange Rate Policy Security, and the Parliament
August 2015
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Senario6 Pace of Economic Reform, Regional Security, and the EEDC
March 2015
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario5 Escalated Attacks, Economic Summit, & Repayment of Arrears
November 2014
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling, the report depicts possible impacts on the economy, as a result of escalated attacks, better than expected outcome from the economic summit, and the repayment of arrears to international oil companies.
Scenario Analysis
Tourism, gulf inflows, and external shocks Tourism, Gulf Inflows, and External Shocks
April 2014
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in Tourism, Gulf Inflows, and External Shocks, and their impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario AnalysisInflation, Tourism, and Gulf Inflows
October 2013
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in Inflation, Tourism, and Gulf Inflows and their impacts on the economy.
Scenario Analysis
Taxation, Interest Rates, FXCorporate Income Tax, Interest Rates, and Foreign Exchange Rates
June 2013
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts possible changes in taxes, interest rates, and foreign exchange and their impacts on the economy.
Taxation, Interest Rates, FX
Devaluation of the Egyptian Pound
January 2013
Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Using Dcode's economic modeling the report depicts the economic impacts to the EGP depreciation.

Policy Briefs & Special Reports


Recent Legislations with Economic Implications
1 June 2017
This brief document aims at analyzing the main implications recent legislative changes.
legislations
Understanding Egypt’s Public Debt Dynamics
25 May 2017
This note aims at shedding light on the dynamics of public sector debt, its development, and the projected trajectory in the medium term.
Debt
Possible Drivers for a Second Interest Rate Hike
18 May 2017
Amid heightened speculations on whether or not interest rates will be changed, this report assess the implications
Interest
FX: What’s Your Next Move?
18 Oct. 2016 (with 2 updates)
At the time of economic ambiguity, we strived at Dcode EFC to clarify the different future scenarios regarding the monetary policy in Egypt
BOP
MacroUpdate Macroeconomic Update: Assessing the decisions/actions relating to foreign exchange management and import regulations
Feb. 2016
Analysing macro-economic implications of recent FX and imports regulations
BOP
Trade Notepic1 Egypt's Incomplete Devaluation
May 2015
The decision of the CBE to devalue the EGP against the USD in the first quarter of 2015 was certainly a good move, but is it going to boost Egypt’s exports? Dcode EFC believes not.
BOP
CBECBE's New Year's Resolutions
22 January 2015
In this report, Dcode EFC aims at presenting the context and motives for the recent monetary policy developments and assessing their potential impact on the economy and businesses.
BOP
Egypt TradeEgypt’s Balance of Payments (BOP) Performance in Q1 2014/15
January 2015
In this note, we aim at highlighting the key insights/messages driven from the published data on Egypt’s BOP performance in Q1 2014/15
BOP
Egypt EnergyRenewable Energy in Egypt
January 2015
Update 1- Selected Companies for the First Phase of Solar and Wind Power Projects and Licensing Requirements
Renewable Energy
Egypt FXEgyptian Foreign Exchange Market:The undeclared fight
December 2014
This issue of Dcode EFC’s Special Reports address the Egyptian foreign exchange (FX) market dynamics.
Egypt GDP
Egypt EconomyEgypt GDP Performance in Q4 2013/14
October 2014
Dcode EFC analyzes Egypt's GDP Performance; sources of growth, and the best and worst performing sectors during the period.
Egypt GDP
tradeEgypt's Balance of Payments Performance in 2013/14
October 2014
BOP key highlights, with insightful analysis, and important data revisions
Egypt BOP
Solar energy in EgyptGreen Power in Egypt
September 2014
A special report analyzing the new tariff scheme and investigating if it will encourage private investments into green power generation in Egypt
Energy Subsidies
Egypt taxesTax Reforms: Income, and Real Estate Taxes
September 2014
The policy brief, explains and analyzes the recent tax reforms measures taken by the government.
Tax Reforms
Egypt SubsidyLocal Fuel Prices and Subsidy Streamlining
July 2014
A brief on New local fuel prices and subsidy streamlining in the 2014/15 budget.
Energy Subsidies
Egypt EconomyEnergy Subsidies
February 2014
A comprehensive policy brief on the energy subsidies' breakdown, their potential streamlining measures, and Likely implications for removing them in Egypt.
Energy Subsidies
Political and Economic ScenariosPossible Political Scenarios and Associated Economic Implications Two Months into a New Transition
September 2013
Dcode EFC has developed four potential scenarios for the unfolding of political events over the coming months and their associated economic repercussions.
Political and Economic Scenarios
Exchange RatePolitical Developments and the EGP/USD Exchange Rate
19 June 2013
Egypt is heading towards what could be a massive opposition demonstration on June 30th, 2013. Dcode conducted a scenario analysis exercise to assess the short-term economic outcomes under various possible scenarios.
Exchange Rate
Income Tax
July 2013
the Shura council approved several key changes in the income tax code. The brief highlights the changes and their effect on corporates.
Sukuk Policy Brief: Can it Save Egypt from its Financial Hardship?
March 2013
Outlines the rationale and policy recommendation for choosing Sukuk as an alternative course of action, in light of the new legislation.