Policy Briefs IconThe Economic Policy Briefs and Special Reports, published by Dcode EFC, outline the rationale for choosing a particular policy alternative or course of action in the current economic debates in the Egyptian economy. Given the swift, significant and ongoing changes in government officials, orientation, regulations and policies, which have sizable impact on the Egyptian economy, it becomes necessary to understand the rationale behind these developments, and what they entail for the economy and businesses. It is foreseen, in light of the recent developments in Egypt, that swift economic reform policies are going to be undertaken. In such a rapid economic reform environment, regulatory impact assessments are hardly made by governments. Dcode EFC’s policy briefs and special reports are issued quarterly, aiming to:

  • Shed light on key and notable events and their impact/significance on the economy and on Dcode EFC standard economic outlook.
  • Provide the most credible and accurate description of a certain policy.
  • Set the relevant context and background information through which the event can be analyzed and explained in a credible manner.
  • Outline the rationale for choosing a particular policy alternative or course of action by the government.
  • Assess the potential impact of the proposed economic policies / regulations on the key macroeconomic indicators and their expected impact on the private sector.

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Policy Briefs & Special Reports

On Inflation & Exchange Rate:
Short Term Prospects

29 January 2019
In this note, we shed light on two key economic variables of concern to the business community, mainly inflation and exchange rate.
Egypt’s Balance of Payments (BOP) Performance in Q1 2018/19
14 January 2019
In this report, we aim at highlighting the key insights driven from the published data on Egypt’s BOP performance in Q1 2018/19
Egypt’s Balance of Payments (BOP) Performance in Q4 2017/18
8 October 2018
In this report, we aim at highlighting the key insights driven from the published data on Egypt’s BOP performance in Q4 2017/18
On Egypt’s Exchange Rate Management: An imminent devaluation?
24 September 2018
In this Brief Note, Dcode EFC considers two scenarios; one that assumes that the stock of foreign investments in government securities will be completely depleted by June 2019 (aggressive scenario), and another that assumes depletion by June 2020 (mild scenario).
Key Highlights of the IMF’s 3rd Review
30 July 2018
In this report, we aim at highlighting the key insights driven on the government’s policy agenda, reform priorities and implementation limitations form the IMF's 3rd Review.
Egypt’s Balance of Payments (BOP) Performance in Q3 2017/18
4 July 2018
In this report, we aim at highlighting the key insights driven from the published data on Egypt’s BOP performance in Q3 2017/18
Key Highlights of Egypt’s Capital Market Law Amendments
1 April 2018
In this brief note, we present the main highlights of the amendments of the Law.
CBE Lowers Key Interest Rates by 100 Basis Points
19 February 2018
In this brief alert, we present the main drivers behind such move, and the expected implications thereof.
Key Highlight’s of Egypt’s New Universal Health Insurance Law
5 February 2018
In this brief note, we present the main stipulations of the new law; with a focus on the sources of funding for such system.
Legislations with Economic Implications (2)
21 January 2018
In this brief note, we discuss two important legislative developments with potential positive impact on the business climate in Egypt.
Fitch Revises Egypt's Outlook to Positive
18 January 2018
In this special report, we discuss Fitch’s forecasts for Egypt’s main macroeconomic indicators; compared to Dcode EFC’s forecasts.
CBE Lifts Caps on USD Deposits and Withdrawals for Companies Importing Non- Essential Commodities
30 November 2017
In this alert, we review the history and developments for such limits; in addition to the reasons for their removal and the immediate market reaction.
Egyptian Government Bans Payments through Paper Checks
16 October 2017
This special report analyzes the GoE Decree on banning Payments through paper checks.
Dcode EFC’s View on the IMF First Review
11 October 2017
This special report analyzes the first IMF review with its challenging reforms still yet to be implemented, especially on the energy subsidy front.
Recent Legislations with Economic Implications
1 June 2017
This brief document aims at analyzing the main implications recent legislative changes.
Understanding Egypt’s Public Debt Dynamics
25 May 2017
This note aims at shedding light on the dynamics of public sector debt, its development, and the projected trajectory in the medium term.
Possible Drivers for a Second Interest Rate Hike
18 May 2017
Amid heightened speculations on whether or not interest rates will be changed, this report assess the implications
Understanding Recent Inflation Figures (for non-experts)
16 March 2017
In this brief note we attempt to explain the different official measurements of inflation and their underlying trend.
FX: What’s Your Next Move?
18 Oct. 2016 (with 2 updates)
At the time of economic ambiguity, we strived at Dcode EFC to clarify the different future scenarios regarding the monetary policy in Egypt
MacroUpdate Macroeconomic Update: Assessing the decisions/actions relating to foreign exchange management and import regulations
Feb. 2016
Analysing macro-economic implications of recent FX and imports regulations
Trade Notepic1 Egypt's Incomplete Devaluation
May 2015
The decision of the CBE to devalue the EGP against the USD in the first quarter of 2015 was certainly a good move, but is it going to boost Egypt’s exports? Dcode EFC believes not.
CBECBE's New Year's Resolutions
22 January 2015
In this report, Dcode EFC aims at presenting the context and motives for the recent monetary policy developments and assessing their potential impact on the economy and businesses.
Egypt TradeEgypt’s Balance of Payments (BOP) Performance in Q1 2014/15
January 2015
In this note, we aim at highlighting the key insights/messages driven from the published data on Egypt’s BOP performance in Q1 2014/15
Egypt EnergyRenewable Energy in Egypt
January 2015
Update 1- Selected Companies for the First Phase of Solar and Wind Power Projects and Licensing Requirements
Renewable Energy
Egypt FXEgyptian Foreign Exchange Market:The undeclared fight
December 2014
This issue of Dcode EFC’s Special Reports address the Egyptian foreign exchange (FX) market dynamics.
Egypt GDP
Egypt EconomyEgypt GDP Performance in Q4 2013/14
October 2014
Dcode EFC analyzes Egypt's GDP Performance; sources of growth, and the best and worst performing sectors during the period.
Egypt GDP
tradeEgypt's Balance of Payments Performance in 2013/14
October 2014
BOP key highlights, with insightful analysis, and important data revisions
Egypt BOP
Solar energy in EgyptGreen Power in Egypt
September 2014
A special report analyzing the new tariff scheme and investigating if it will encourage private investments into green power generation in Egypt
Energy Subsidies
Egypt taxesTax Reforms: Income, and Real Estate Taxes
September 2014
The policy brief, explains and analyzes the recent tax reforms measures taken by the government.
Tax Reforms
Egypt SubsidyLocal Fuel Prices and Subsidy Streamlining
July 2014
A brief on New local fuel prices and subsidy streamlining in the 2014/15 budget.
Energy Subsidies
Egypt EconomyEnergy Subsidies
February 2014
A comprehensive policy brief on the energy subsidies' breakdown, their potential streamlining measures, and Likely implications for removing them in Egypt.
Energy Subsidies
Political and Economic ScenariosPossible Political Scenarios and Associated Economic Implications Two Months into a New Transition
September 2013
Dcode EFC has developed four potential scenarios for the unfolding of political events over the coming months and their associated economic repercussions.
Political and Economic Scenarios
Exchange RatePolitical Developments and the EGP/USD Exchange Rate
19 June 2013
Egypt is heading towards what could be a massive opposition demonstration on June 30th, 2013. Dcode conducted a scenario analysis exercise to assess the short-term economic outcomes under various possible scenarios.
Exchange Rate
Income Tax
July 2013
the Shura council approved several key changes in the income tax code. The brief highlights the changes and their effect on corporates.
Sukuk Policy Brief: Can it Save Egypt from its Financial Hardship?
March 2013
Outlines the rationale and policy recommendation for choosing Sukuk as an alternative course of action, in light of the new legislation.