On Egypt’s Exchange Rate Management:
An imminent devaluation?

Brief Note

Published: 24 September 2018 

  • 6 Pages
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Summary

In this brief, we explore the potential effect of this capital flight on the local forex market. We update our forecast of the exchange rate path considering recent developments in EMs and the accelerated hot money outflow. We consider two scenarios; one that assumes that the stock of foreign investments in government securities will be completely depleted by June 2019 (aggressive scenario), and another that assumes depletion by June 2020 (mild scenario).


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