Egypt Economic Outlook

Egypt Economic Outlook March 2016


Egypt’s Economic Outlook – Dcode EFC

Published: March 2016

15 Pages

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Summary

Despite the short-lived economic recovery witnessed in H2 2014 (July-December 2014) with an average annual growth rate of 5.6% and the positive sentiment at that time, economic and business activity in Egypt has been crippled by the severe shortage in foreign currencies which was exacerbated by the decisions taken by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in February 2015 including the restriction on foreign currency deposits at banks.

The new cabinet will be facing many challenges; among which are the widening budget deficit, the decline of dollar generating economic activities as well as the slowdown in economic growth on the backdrop of the slowdown in the manufacturing sector and widening trade deficit. In December 2015, the government signed a USD 3 mn loan agreement with the World Bank; a key pillar of which was the replacement of the General Sales Tax (GST) with a broad-based Value-added Tax (VAT) that is likely to increase the standard tax rate on goods and services and would include services that were previously not taxed.


Table of Contents

I. Global Economic Outlook 

II. Egypt’s Political and Economic Landscape 

  1. Political and Security Developments
  2. Economic Setup

III. Egypt’s Economic Outlook 

  1. Key Assumptions
  2. Economic Growth and Unemployment
  3. Fiscal Outlook
  4. Prices, Interest Rates & Banking Intermediation
  5. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
  6. External Accounts

Annex: Summary of Key Macroeconomic Projections


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