Egypt’s Economic Outlook: Back into a Transition Loaded with an Exhausted Economy
Published: September 2013
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“Egypt’s Economic Outlook” is a quarterly publication that summarizes Dcode EFC’s view of the most likely economic scenarios over the short and medium terms, along with the prospects of key macroeconomic indicators. The projected economic figures are driven in light of (i) Dcode EFC’s consistent and detailed macroeconomic framework, (ii) a thorough follow up and assessment of the most recent announced policies, news and economic trends, and (iii) an intelligent analysis of the latest published official statistics and indicators. The views and insights provided in this report are based on our experts’ technical knowledge and local insights, coupled with an objective assessment of the entire economic and political picture, and any developments at the time of the report’s publication. Our ultimate goal is to provide a reliable forward-looking view of key economic indicators and trends and to present our core findings in a clear, illustrative fashion to support our clients and partners in making the most informed decisions. In addition, the report highlights some of the key economic risks facing Egypt and businesses operating within the country over the short and medium terms.
Egypt is going through a new political transition after the ousting of President Morsi. This transition has the following sequential milestones: appointing the head of High Constitutional Court as Interim President, amending the 2012 constitution, as well as running parliamentary and presidential elections respectively. A new interim Cabinet was sworn in, headed by a well-known liberal economist, Dr. Hazem El-Beblawi. The new cabinet has a coherent and experienced economic team, yet it lacks representation from Islamic parties. After a forceful dispersion of two sit-ins of former President’s supporters, the security situation deteriorated and violence escalated leading to a large toll of deaths and causalities. As a result, the Interim President declared the state of emergency and imposed a daily curfew. The security condition is gradually improving with the military and the police carrying out wide-scale raids on militants in the Sinai Peninsula. The international community reaction was mixed with the Gulf States and many Arab countries acknowledging Egypt’s new regime unlike Western countries that were pushing for a political compromise that would keep for the Muslim Brotherhood a central role in the political scenery. However, the Western camp seems to have little leverage to influence developments on the ground given the wide coalition that supports the new transition process. Progress continues with regard the announced road map. Dcode EFC’s central forecast scenario assumes that the interim government would implement the road map as planned, yet may encounter difficulties in embracing many Islamic parties back in the political scenery especially in the short-term. On the economic front, we assume that the government would pursue expansionary policies in the coming months to stimulate a weakening economy.
Table of Contents
III- Executive Summary
IV- Landscape and Key Assumptions
V- Global Economic Outlook
VI- Economic Growth and Unemployment
VII- Breakdown of Economic Drivers and Unemployment
a) Private Consumption
b) Private Investment
c) Exports and Imports
VIII- Government Finances and Debt
IX- Prices and Interest Rates
X- Banking Indicators and Exchange Rates
XII- External Sector
XIII- Key Risks
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