Egypt’s Economic Outlook – Dcode EFC
Published: December 2017
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- Government will continue it reforms; we expect fiscal consolidation to remain on track.
- Monetary policy will be gradually untightened, supported by contained government financing needs. Inflation is expected to fall into the CBE target zone by the end of 2018 as officially announced.
- We do not assume aggressive adjustment in oil prices as stated by the government; but we study the effect of this move in a separate scenario.
- Growth will be temporarily boosted by higher exports but fundamental drivers remain weak. Sustained high growth in the medium and long term requires more effort on factors related to capital and labor productivity.
- The current account deficit has declined but will be persistent due to poor growth drivers, low saving ratio (high share of consumption to GDP) and increasing need for investment. This means that Egypt will continue to depend on external debt to finance its external deficit.
- A flexible exchange rate (to maintain competitiveness and buffer external shocks) and controlled fiscal deficit will be key in supporting the external sector and alleviating pressures on the current account.
Table of Contents
I. Global Economic Outlook
II. Egypt’s Political and Economic Landscape
- Political and Security Developments
- Economic Setup
III. Egypt’s Economic Outlook
- Key Assumptions
- Economic Growth and Unemployment
- Fiscal Outlook
- Prices, Interest Rates & Banking Intermediation
- Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
- External Accounts
Annex: Summary of Key Macroeconomic Projections
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