Egypt’s Economic Outlook – Dcode EFC

Published: February 2017

24 Pages

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Summary

Egypt’s macroeconomic setting is undoubtedly going through a major transformation. The recent economic reforms are by far the boldest in Egypt’s modern history. After a long history of controlling the foreign exchange market to hedge against imported inflation, the CBE finally realized it cannot beat market fundamentals. The shift to a fully-floated currency is certainly a game changer as it boosts investors’ confidence and increases the effectiveness of the other monetary policy tools; mainly interest rates. The period of correction, however, is challenging and causes a lot of disruption in the market. Whether this is good or bad news would differ from a stakeholder to another.

An enabling macroeconomic environment, that includes sustainable government finances and efficient foreign exchange market, will by default lead to higher domestic and foreign investments. However, to compete for global investment inflows against other major destinations, the GoE must press ahead with other cross-cutting investment climate reforms.


Table of Contents

I. Global Economic Outlook 

II. Egypt’s Political and Economic Landscape 

  1. Political and Security Developments
  2. Economic Setup

III. Egypt’s Economic Outlook 

  1. Key Assumptions
  2. Economic Growth and Unemployment
  3. Fiscal Outlook
  4. Prices, Interest Rates & Banking Intermediation
  5. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
  6. External Accounts

Annex: Summary of Key Macroeconomic Projections


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