Economic Alerts

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  • The Macroeconomic Impact of the EGPC-ARAMCO Deal

    I. What is the EGPC-ARAMCO deal? The deal was signed in April 2016 by the two national oil companies and entails monthly supply of 700,000 tons of refined oil products by ARAMCO over five years, with preferential terms. The terms include the amortization of payments over 15 years with an interest rate of 2% and […]

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  • Egypt’s Balance of Payments (BOP)

    Key Highlights: Egypt’s Balance of Payments (BOP)– Q3 and 9M 2015/16 According to a recent press release by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), Egypt’s BOP recorded a net outflow of USD 3.64 bn in July-March 2015/16 compared to the same period in 2014/15. Such deterioration was due to a widening in the current account […]

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  • The Suez Canal Relative Importance to Egypt and to the World

    Why is the Suez Canal important to the Egyptian economy? Suez Canal receipts represent a key source of foreign currency in Egypt; whereby it reached USD 5.4 bn in FY 2013/14. The relative importance of the Canal increased as other key foreign currency generating activities, like FDIs and tourism, faltered post 2011 and 2013 revolutions […]

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  • The Pound’s Recent Depreciation

    The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) allowed the EGP to depreciate 2.6%, against the USD, over the last two regular auctions. The USD cut off price at CBE’s auctions increased to EGP 7.63 on Thursday before reaching EGP 7.73 in today’s auction. It’s noteworthy that the EGP/USD remained unchanged over the past five months after […]

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  • The Biggest Adjustment in Policy Interest Rates Since 2011

    CBE raises key policy rates by 100 basis point In its meeting held on July 17, 2014, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to raise all policy rates by 100 basis points. The overnight lending and deposit rates were raised to 10.25% and 9.25%, respectively, and the discount […]

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  • The Stock Market Vibes Post Al-Sisi’s Announcement

    Is the turbulence intentional? The Egyptian stock market (EGX) witnessed turbulent two trading sessions post the long awaited Al-Sisi’s announcement of his intention to run for presidential elections. During these two trading sessions the main index, EGX30, declined by 2.70% and 3.55% on March 27th, 2014 and March 31st, 2014, respectively. There were several theories […]

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  • The Risk of Stagflation

    While economists might disagree on a sound measurement of stagflation in a given economy, they unanimously approve that combining high inflation with slow economic growth and rising unemployment results in a very unhealthy “cocktail” for any economy leading to serious social unrest and higher poverty rates. In Egypt, the economy had been sluggishly growing since […]

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  • The Story Behind Egypt’s NIR Increase in February 2014

    Dissecting NIRs The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced on March 5, 2014, that Egypt’s Net International Reserves (NIRs) increased by USD 202 mn to reach USD 17.307 bn as of end February 2014, compared to USD17.105 bn as of end January 2014. This is the second month of increases after five consecutive months of […]

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